Estimated Time: Forecast and guaranteed

[Jerry Martin]

I already heard on some topics that some suppliers leave some margin to be in-time for the final client if they have a command, so that if on the manufacturing side or on transportation side or on any side, in fact, a problem and delay happens but the contract can still be made without waste, the delay are not "felt" because it is already under the guaranteed delay.
Instead of hiding this information and give it sooner than expected the goods, why not let clients see a forecast of the estimated time, while being clear this is a forecast and can't be guaranteed because it counts on too many factors, even weather, to be official, and then the "guaranteed" delay, the time where it should be there 99% of the time. It should let clients know why there delays sometimes but also have an idea of how sooner it may come given the forecast.

 

[Corzhens]

Re: Estimated Time: Forecast and guaranteed

From what I know in that situation of ordering supplies for manufacturing, there are allowances injected into the schedule. The importation of shoes begins with the sending of the design to China and the feedback arrives within a week. When it's a go, they remit the deposit and it takes another week for the job to start. Say for a 4-week period of manufacturing, my cousin would be checking on the progress by email or skype. They have a job chart that has the timeline for each and every procedure. But delays can still happen because of unforseen events.

 

[Jerry Martin]

Re: Estimated Time: Forecast and guaranteed

From what I know in that situation of ordering supplies for manufacturing, there are allowances injected into the schedule. The importation of shoes begins with the sending of the design to China and the feedback arrives within a week. When it's a go, they remit the deposit and it takes another week for the job to start. Say for a 4-week period of manufacturing, my cousin would be checking on the progress by email or skype. They have a job chart that has the timeline for each and every procedure. But delays can still happen because of unforseen events.

Let's take an example. You are 95% sure you can deliver the person in 6 days. This is the "maximum contract date" where the purchaser can't talk about delay. Given the current traffic conditions and weather, you expects the delivery to happen in 4 days. But, in pure theory, and in favorable conditions, the delivery could happen at the soonest possible in 3 days.

So, in your concept, do you mean they give a rather a forecast delay (4 days in my example), saying "it should be there in 4 days, but it must be there in 6 days, hence a 2 days margin"? Because there's multiple approaches, once again, and multiple ways to answer this.

I mean, for example, the disclosed date could be the shortest (but neither likely or unlikely, just the shortest) time you can expect for the delivery, or 3 days in the example, with margins to contains pretty much any case outside the major ones, a margin of 3 days, in the example.

But the disclosed date could also be the forecast time, 4 days in the example, based on the current forecast of weather conditions, holidays, etc. and this forecast time is intended to be most accurate possible, and the disclosed allowance would be of 2 days, to let it reach 6 days. But if the forecast was 3 days, the allowance would be of 3 days as well, in order to let it reach 6 days "guarantee".

 

[Norm]

Re: Estimated Time: Forecast and guaranteed

In our online retail shop we always give the worst case scenario dates because if we are too transparent then the customers will just get too anxious at the first day of possible shipping and by the later days if somehow there are unexpected delays then it would just end up aggravating them unnecessarily since in their mind they have already been waiting a few days instead of just one day delay. In a bigger scale the reasons are probably different but knowing this I can't help but think there are probably some similarities to the actual reason why they don't disclose all the details.

 

[Jerry Martin]

Re: Estimated Time: Forecast and guaranteed

In our online retail shop we always give the worst case scenario dates because if we are too transparent then the customers will just get too anxious at the first day of possible shipping and by the later days if somehow there are unexpected delays then it would just end up aggravating them unnecessarily since in their mind they have already been waiting a few days instead of just one day delay. In a bigger scale the reasons are probably different but knowing this I can't help but think there are probably some similarities to the actual reason why they don't disclose all the details.

Feels too bad that customers seems less happier with more details than the one with less details, where we basically "lie" to, because we cover our grounds so much meaning the delivery will be often early, and people may count on the fact they may deliver early, just because it happens often. If something happens 95% of the time, you should better believe what happens really in 95% of time rather than a 99% likely to be "at this date or sooner".
Now I understand the argument, I am just puzzled of the fact basically, transparency makes things worse, much like if customers couldn't really handle themselves.

 

[Noreht]

Re: Estimated Time: Forecast and guaranteed

We have have a few dates that we work into our contracts with all our suppliers.

Delivery date: Date that supplier thinks he will be able to deliver.
Required date: Final date that goods will be accepted and they should be with client by that date.
Lead time: This is the amount of days that it takes from an order to be placed to the supplier until delivery of the goods to the client.

Giving clear and concise dates is one of the most important aspects of good contract management imo.