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Forecast Reporting - Return

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  • Forecast Reporting - Return

    Has anyone ever tried to forecast returns?

    --At first I thought I could use Holt-Winters and forecast off seasonal trends expecting higher returns during start/end of the fiscal month, but the data didn't support this.

    --There must be a correlation to sales $'s , but we hold different customers to different return rights. So that varies.

    --A weighted moving average would work, baselining off our allotted returns for the year, but the actuals are all over the place some much that this is realiable.

    I know there has to be a way to tackle this but I am really scratching my head over this one. I am hoping that some one can help with this or at the least generate a discussion around it that may lead to a solution. Help Please!!

  • #2
    Re: Forecast Reporting - Return

    Originally posted by jpizzolato View Post
    Has anyone ever tried to forecast returns?

    --At first I thought I could use Holt-Winters and forecast off seasonal trends expecting higher returns during start/end of the fiscal month, but the data didn't support this.

    --There must be a correlation to sales $'s , but we hold different customers to different return rights. So that varies.

    --A weighted moving average would work, baselining off our allotted returns for the year, but the actuals are all over the place some much that this is realiable.

    I know there has to be a way to tackle this but I am really scratching my head over this one. I am hoping that some one can help with this or at the least generate a discussion around it that may lead to a solution. Help Please!!

    What are the products that you are trying to forecast, as this may have a correlation on the forecasting method needed?

    Also at what level are you trying to forecast at, product, customer, company level?

    I am not familiar with Holt Winters, but I have a very comprehensive forecasting tool, excel based, that I have successfully forecasted wine sales over 30k products and 24 customers, my tool takes into accounts and analyzes seasonal trends, removes the seasonality, forecasts the baseline and then puts back in the seasonality. If you think this might be helpful, let me know and I will send you a private message with my email address and will send it to you.

    SJ

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    I am proud to work for Europe's leading Single Price Retailer

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    • #3
      Re: Forecast Reporting - Return

      Originally posted by jpizzolato View Post
      Has anyone ever tried to forecast returns?

      --At first I thought I could use Holt-Winters and forecast off seasonal trends expecting higher returns during start/end of the fiscal month, but the data didn't support this.

      --There must be a correlation to sales $'s , but we hold different customers to different return rights. So that varies.

      --A weighted moving average would work, baselining off our allotted returns for the year, but the actuals are all over the place some much that this is realiable.

      I know there has to be a way to tackle this but I am really scratching my head over this one. I am hoping that some one can help with this or at the least generate a discussion around it that may lead to a solution. Help Please!!
      Accuracy of forecasting in terms of $ and qty is always a problem especially when drawing up the next FY Budget Plan . The accuracy of the selling price to be used in the budget is important because it have direct impact on the forecasted P&L . If the said product is not influenced by the commodity market trend then maybe setting the forecasted price into 1st Half and 2nd Half to get the average is best.

      Hope this helps.

      Rgds

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